This article by Chris Wood at WSP, reminded me to write about how batteries may save the rail system and taxpayers a lot of money.
I have written before how I think public transport will decline due to a combination of electrification and automation.
Firstly electrification makes car travel super cheap. Today that is because tax is lower on electricity than petrol and diesel, (and can’t really change) Looking slightly further ahead, ever declining electricity prices from renewable sources will make it even cheaper and low carbon, (so government won’t be able to use that as an excuse to tax). Electrification also has the effect of giving us super cheap micro-mobility; e-scooters, e-bikes, etc. This is almost ignored by local government, and I think national government is dragging its feet on the legalisation of e-scooters. Its impact will be profound for local transport; we will soon be able to undertake <5 mile journeys faster than by bus/train, making no physical effort, from door to door and for free. Why would I wait for the bus?
Generally, this is a good thing; people will be able to get where they want faster and more cheaply, cleanly. (Surely the criteria against which any transport policy is tested.)
Those arguing against this, would say that the congestion caused will be unacceptable and government will legislate against it; congestion charges, etc. I don’t think this will make much difference. Electric travel will be so cheap and private vehicles so comfortable and superior to the alternative, that cars will continue to dominate. Micro-mobility could massively reduce congestion anyway. After decades of ineffectual policy on buses, cycling and walking, the market may have delivered a genuinely compelling alternative to cars for short journeys.
I think this is great news for us all, but it is bad news for buses, which I expect to continue to decline in usage, still providing some big point to point services and blending into hailing apps.
Trains are different. For much big intercity travel they are the only practical options. Travelling from central London to central Manchester by car isn’t practical for most of us. For many of us, being on the train is productive work time. (Autonomous vehicles change everything,……one day.)
Still, there is much intra-city train travel, short commuter services and town to town services that could be replaced by the super cheap electric cars and micro-mobility. Even some intercity transport is so slow and uncomfortable you can see it being replaced. As a victim of Transport for Wales Cardiff-Manchester and Cross-Country’s Cardiff-Birmingham services, I write with feeling.
The issue is that the business and economics of trains are very different to buses. If people don’t use buses, you can just stop using them, the road will be unaffected. For trains, we have hundreds of billions of pounds of railway network, stations and even a huge amount of development built directly around stations because of the trains. You can’t just walk away from them. This is what gives rail unions so much power; the taxpayer will have to bail out the service eventually. This is a recipe for declining rail use, worse services and more subsidies. Getting to the point, this is where batteries could make trains competitive, again.
Around 30% of UK rolling stock is diesel and many lines that aren’t electrified. Chris’s article suggests that batteries will allow these branch lines and unelectrified lines to use battery trains for short distances. His point is that this will be crucial for decarbonisation, but there is a more fundamental point; they might make people want to get on trains.
Battery trains, like overhead electric trains could accelerate a lot faster than diesel trains, they can also have higher top speeds. They are quieter for passengers and don’t emit loads of air pollution. They will also be easier to automate. I also think they will be useful for much greater distances than is assumed. This is what could help save rail; much faster and cheaper travel.
Except for large intercity travel, trains are almost always slower door to door and more expensive than alternative methods. Much faster battery trains could re-enthuse us about them. They could also increase our productivity. Their automation could enable them to compete with electric cars on price.
I love train travel, but at the moment we seem to have our heads in the sand about the future. I hope batteries can play a role in making rail travel competitive.
Leave a Reply